Gambler's fallacy

What is Gambler’s Fallacy and How to Avoid it

Gambler’s fallacy is one of the most common logical fallacies to be found both in gambling and everyday life. Let’s see why and how to avoid it.

Human beings are creatures that possess almost an innate tendency to recognize patterns. And while that habit has been rather helpful throughout most of history, there are instances when it did more harm. One of the best-known examples of it is the so-called gambler’s fallacy type of thinking. It’s a logical fallacy mostly seen while gambling but also to be found in everyday life. That’s why it’s important to understand what it is and learn how to avoid it so you can improve your overall decision-making in every aspect of life. This article will try to provide some advice.

What Is Gambler’s Fallacy?

The gambler’s fallacy is a type of false belief that the outcome of a certain random future event depends on the previous instances of that type of event. In other words, believing that if something occurs more frequently than usual that it’s less likely to continue doing so in the future and vice versa. This is best exemplified by a game of heads and tails. Imagine flipping a coin let’s say fifteen times and every time it lands it comes “heads”. You must admit you would be at least tempted to say that the sixteenth flip will turn tails. Well, you wouldn’t be the only one, as that bias is strongly ingrained in all of us. And there is an event from the long history of gambling where something even more unbelievable happened.

One Night in Monte Carlo

The best example of the gambler’s fallacy, which also gave it its alternative name (Monte Carlo fallacy), is found in the events that occurred one August night back in 1913. It is said that during one game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino the roulette ball managed to land on black 26 times in a row, which has happened neither before nor after the fact. Players were convinced it had to land on the red soon enough and kept making bets until millions were lost. What they hadn’t realized is that every spin of the wheel is completely independent of the other. The odds are always roughly 50-50 regardless of the times the ball lands on each color.

Why Do We Fall for It?

So, why do we keep on falling for the gambler’s fallacy? There are numerous reasons for it, but it mostly boils down to the way our brains are wired. We like things that are predictable and if something falls out of the ordinary, we look for reasons as to why that is happening. But all random events are, by definition, products of chance, which is what makes them unpredictable in the first place. This is perfectly natural way for our minds to make sense of the chaotic world that marks our everyday existence.

How Do We Avoid Gambler’s Fallacy?

The problem with the gambler’s fallacy is that it’s a kind of inverse Placebo effect. The fact that you are aware of its existence isn’t simply enough to combat it. You need to consider the correlation between two objects and constantly remind yourself of their inability to affect each other. For example, always remember that the chances of you being dealt a pair of aces in poker are the same as anyone else’s at the table, no matter their level of skill. The skill lies in what you do with the hand you’re dealt. The same thing applies to playing slots, as most of them are regulated by RNG (random number generator). This means every new spin is independent of the one before. It guarantees fair play and knowing this will help you detach your emotions before you place your next wager.


The most important thing to remember about a gambler’s fallacy is to not let it scare you. We’re all prone to succumbing to that mode of thinking from time to time. But the randomness of outcomes is what truly makes gambling so fun even when you apply all your skills. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking you’re “due to win” but rather think in terms of “you being due to having as much fun as possible”. With that line of thinking, you’ll attract those big wins in no time. And taking advantage of our 100% low wagering no max cashout deals certainly won’t hurt. Best of luck!

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